📊 ROC vs. PR Curve: Key Differences

ROC vs PR Curve 1 — Figure 1: Forecast of armed conflict 3 months in advance.

ROC vs PR Curve 2 — Figure 2: Forecast of any violence 3 months in advance.

ROC vs PR Curve 3 — Figure 3: Forecast of armed conflict 12 months in advance.

ROC vs PR Curve 4 — Figure 4: Forecast of any violence 12 months in advance.

ROC Curve

📈 Plots: True Positive Rate vs. False Positive Rate
🎯 Best for: Balanced datasets
📉 AUC baseline: 0.5
🧠 Measures: Overall model performance

PR Curve

📈 Plots: Precision vs. Recall
🎯 Best for: Imbalanced datasets
📉 AUC baseline: Depends on positive class frequency
🧠 Measures: Positive class performance

✅ Tip:
Use ROC for general evaluation, PR when positives are rare.